October Fed Hike Odds Slip to 45% — Crypto Traders Are Watching Closely

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October Fed hike odds slip to 45%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. They stood at 70.9% a week earlier. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September. Markets now lean toward a hold at the 28 October meeting.

What Changed So Fast?

New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need for urgency. He added that the Fed has time to gather more data.

He still expects one more hike this year if the economy meets forecasts. Fed Governor Michael Barr sent a firmer message.

Reading the FedWatch Chart

At 11:55 UTC on 30 September 2026 (06:55 CT), CME data showed a 55.2% chance of a hold at the current 375–400 range. A hike to the 400–425 range stood at 44.8%.

October Fed Hike Odds Slip to 45% — Crypto Traders Are Watching Closely — *Image Via CME FedWatch.*

A cut to 350–375 stood at 0.0%. One day earlier, on 29 September, the hold stood at 49.1%. One week earlier, on 23 September, hike odds were 70.9%.

One month earlier, on 28 August, a hike carried only 17.7% and a cut carried 29.7%. At 11:45 UTC on 30 September, Bitcoin traded at $83,887.14.

That was up 0.29% on the weekly candle. Bitcoin ETF inflows have also run seven straight days, which helps the backdrop.

Why Crypto Cares About One Number

Higher rates can drain liquidity from risk assets. Bitcoin and other tokens often feel that pressure first.

The same driver is moving other markets, as gold fell to a seven-week low on changing rate expectations. Lower hike odds can ease that pressure. They do not remove it.

Inflation Data Holds the Next Clue

August PCE inflation data is due on 30 September. A hot reading could push hike odds back up. A soft one could widen the hold lead.

Key US data releases this week may set the tone. For now, the FedWatch chart and the inflation calendar are the two screens crypto traders need.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available data, market observations, and the author’s interpretation at the time of writing. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, and past performance or current technical setups do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. TechGaged does not accept liability for any losses incurred based on the information presented.

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