Bitcoin's $18B Options Expiry Is Coming — A Major Market Move Could Follow

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Friday brings one of the biggest tests Bitcoin has faced all year. Nearly $18 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire at once.

It’s the largest single expiry of 2026. The next few hours after settlement could set the tone for weeks.

The Numbers Behind Friday’s Settlement

Deribit’s metrics page tracks this data live. Roughly $15.9 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.1 billion in Ethereum options expire at 8:00 UTC on September 25.

A Smaller Version of This Same Setup

Expiries like this aren’t new for Bitcoin. A $2.6 billion crypto options expiry played out back in May, with BTC holding just above $80,000 and max pain sitting right at that level too.

That event passed without major disruption. Friday’s expiry is roughly seven times larger. The scale here is genuinely different.

What Max Pain Actually Means

Max pain is a specific price level. It’s the strike price where the largest number of options contracts expire completely worthless.

At that price, option buyers lose the most money overall, and option sellers keep the most premium.

The theory goes that sellers of options, often large market makers, have some ability to influence price toward that level as expiry approaches, since it minimizes their payout obligations.

Right now, max pain sits at $75,000. Bitcoin trades near $85,500. That’s a $10,500 gap.

In theory, that gap creates downward pull on price heading into Friday’s settlement, as sellers benefit from a move lower.

In practice, max pain has a mixed track record as an actual predictor. Strong trends and real buying or selling pressure can easily override it.

Price Chart Shows a Sharp Pullback From the Highs

BTC traded at $83,484.00 as of 13:36 UTC on September 24, 2026, up 9.3% over seven days, per coingecko.

Bitcoin's $18B Options Expiry Is Coming — A Major Market Move Could Follow — *BTCUSD Weekly Chart. Source: CoinGecko.*

The chart shows a steep climb from around $76,000 on September 18 to a fresh high above $86,700 on September 23.

Price has pulled back roughly $3,200 from that peak since, settling near $83,500. That pullback lines up almost exactly with the run-up to Friday’s expiry.

A hold above $83,000 would keep this week’s breakout intact heading into settlement.

A drop back toward $80,000 would put that structure at risk before the contracts even expire, and would also mean price closing in on that $75,000 max pain zone.

What Could Happen Once the Dust Settles

Bitcoin has broken below key options-related support zones before, including a slip beneath its gamma exposure level back in May that triggered a fast pullback.

Once Friday’s hedging flow disappears, that kind of move becomes possible again.

With a third of the book already in the money and price sitting well above max pain, the hours after 8:00 UTC on Friday could bring one of the sharpest moves Bitcoin has seen all month.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available data, market observations, and the author’s interpretation at the time of writing. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, and past performance or current technical setups do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. TechGaged does not accept liability for any losses incurred based on the information presented.

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