Bitcoin Passes a Major Historical Test — A New Phase May Be Emerging

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Bitcoin just closed above a major technical line. The weekly candle closed above the 50-week moving average. That hadn’t happened in 45 weeks. Galaxy Research says this signal has historically marked bear market bottoms.

What Actually Happened

Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn posted the data on his X account. Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on September 20.

Bitcoin Passes a Major Historical Test — A New Phase May Be Emerging — *Image Via Galaxy Research.*

The 50-week moving average sat at $78,786. That’s a close roughly 3% above the line.

Bitcoin Has Tried This Before and Failed

This level hasn’t always held on the first attempt. Bitcoin corrected to $97,000 back in November 2025, still trading below its 50-week EMA at the time.

Analysts then said bears were still in control. Reclaiming the level looked difficult.

That attempt failed. Bitcoin kept falling for months afterward. This history is a reason for some caution now.

The Two Exceptions Worth Remembering

Not every reclaim has worked. Two of the 13 instances Thorn tracked were followed by lower lows. Both happened during the 2021 to 2022 bear market.

That cycle behaved differently from the rest. It’s the clearest example of this signal failing.

Price Reflects the Full Recovery

BTC trades at $85,458.00 as of 14:03 UTC on September 21, 2026, up 8.9% over seven days, per CoinGecko.

The chart shows a sharp climb from below $76,000 on September 16 to above $85,000 by September 21. That’s a fast move.

Bitcoin’s demand had collapsed sharply back in June, with total demand falling by roughly 652,000 BTC in a single week. This week’s rally looks like a sharp reversal from that earlier weak spot.

What Comes Next

The bull case needs more confirmation. A close above $85,000 by September 27 would strengthen the signal.

A drop back below $78,786 would turn this week’s breakout into a false one. Traders are also watching $83,000 as a level that would break the pattern of lower highs.

With price already testing $85,000 just one day after the weekly close, the next few sessions should show whether this reclaim holds or fades like some past attempts did.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available data, market observations, and the author’s interpretation at the time of writing. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, and past performance or current technical setups do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. TechGaged does not accept liability for any losses incurred based on the information presented.

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