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Just when markets had priced in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran reversed course. On April 18, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the strategic waterway was closed again, less than 24 hours after its foreign minister declared it fully open.

Bitcoin, which had surged past $78,000 on the initial relief rally, dropped back toward $76,000.

Yet beneath the immediate volatility lies a more significant setup: a deeply negative funding environment that could turn the next closure headline into the trigger for an even larger short squeeze.

What the Weekly and Daily Charts Reveal

The weekly BTC/USD chart (Binance) shows Bitcoin trading at $74,980.32. The Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2) remains below price, a bullish configuration that has been intact since the breakout above $70,000 in late March.

The MACD (12, 26, 5) reads 523.05, confirming that bullish momentum is still present on the higher timeframe.

Price is holding above the key $74,000 level, and the structure suggests the uptrend remains valid as long as Bitcoin stays above the $72,000-$74,000 zone.

The daily BTC/USD chart (Binance) offers a more immediate view of the post-Hormuz volatility.

As of April 19, Bitcoin trades at $75,020.84, down 1.04% on the session but still above the critical $73,442.28 support level.

The Parabolic SAR on the daily has flipped above price briefly during the pullback but is now converging, signaling that the short-term corrective phase may be ending.

The MACD (12, 26, 9) shows a positive histogram with the MACD line at 491.26, indicating that bullish momentum is moderating but not reversing.

A decisive daily close above $76,000 would likely accelerate buying toward the $78,000-$80,000 range.

Why the Re-Closure Could Trigger a Larger Squeeze

Despite the forced unwind on April 17, funding rates on bitcoin perpetuals remain negative, and short interest has been rebuilt, with Coinglass data showing roughly $913 million in shorts sitting above $81,264.

Any positive headline—a temporary reopening or a diplomatic breakthrough could trigger another wave of forced covering.

The market is now conditioned to react violently to Hormuz news and the short base has not been eliminated.

Institutional Demand Offers a Backstop

Despite the geopolitical whipsaw, institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure has remained resilient.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $1.6 billion in inflows in April, with BlackRock’s IBIT bringing its cumulative total to $64.35 billion.

BTC futures open interest climbed to $61 billion this week, the highest level in months, signaling that sophisticated capital is still positioning for upside even as retail sentiment remains cautious.

The divergence between institutional accumulation and short-heavy derivatives positioning creates the exact conditions for a squeeze.

The next Hormuz headline—whichever direction it moves—could be the spark that sets off the next liquidation cascade. The only question is which side of the trade gets caught unprepared.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available data, market observations, and the author’s interpretation at the time of writing. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, and past performance or current technical setups do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. TechGaged does not accept liability for any losses incurred based on the information presented.