Goldman Sachs Changes Its Fed Call — The Next Rate Decision Could Shake Markets

Add TechGaged as your preferred source on Google

See more TechGaged stories across Google News and Discover.

Goldman Sachs has reversed its outlook for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

In a research note dated September 11, 2026, chief US economist David Mericle said the bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike at the two-day FOMC meeting concluding September 16, a reversal from its previous no-change call, driven less by a fundamental shift in its inflation view and more by the desire to avoid a sharp market reaction.

Goldman Sachs Changes Its Fed Call — The Next Rate Decision Could Shake Markets — *Image by WSJ Staff.*

A Sudden Change in Tone

Goldman said the latest CPI data, which showed core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month in August against a 0.2% expectation, only raised its August core PCE forecast slightly to 0.26% and left its broader inflation outlook unchanged.

Markets Already Pricing the Move

Following the August CPI release, CME’s FedWatch tool showed probabilities of a September increase climbing quickly into the mid-to-high 80% range.

The rapid shift left limited room for the Fed to hold rates steady without triggering a response across bonds, equities, and the dollar.

Mitsubishi UFJ has also abandoned its own hold forecast in favor of a hike call, adding another major institution to the same side of the trade.

Why the Decision Carries Weight

A rate hike would mark a clear tightening step at a time when many had expected patience. Higher policy rates typically pressure risk assets while supporting the dollar.

Techgaged has tracked this exact dynamic playing out in crypto repeatedly this year, noting in April that Bitcoin stayed below $81,000 as traders reassessed Fed rate expectations after inflation came in hotter than forecast.

Because so much of this move is already priced in, the greater impact may come from the Fed’s accompanying guidance, whether it signals further increases or frames the step as limited.

Goldman’s own view leans toward the latter: the bank believes most FOMC members will likely avoid another hike at the October meeting, partly because that meeting falls close to the midterm elections.

The Week Ahead

Goldman’s revised call adds institutional weight to expectations of action next week.

Techgaged flagged a similar setup back in December 2025, when Bitcoin sold off repeatedly during Fed weeks despite high market optimism heading into the announcement, a pattern that suggests how the Fed frames its guidance often matters more to crypto prices than the rate decision itself.

With the meeting approaching, attention now turns to both the decision and the message that follows.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available data, market observations, and the author’s interpretation at the time of writing. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, and past performance or current technical setups do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. TechGaged does not accept liability for any losses incurred based on the information presented.

How do you rate this article?