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A new research paper from Presidio Bitcoin is pushing the conversation around Bitcoin (BTC) and quantum computing into sharper focus. The report, titled ‘Bitcoin’s Quantum Readiness,’ outlines how the network could handle future threats from advanced quantum machines. Though the risks are real, the takeaway is that Bitcoin is not as fragile as some narratives suggest.

Quantum threat targets keys, not Bitcoin itself

The paper makes an important distinction. Even if so-called cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) arrive, they would not break Bitcoin’s core system, such as consensus or supply rules.

Instead, the main risk lies in targeted theft. Specifically, coins tied to addresses with exposed public keys could be vulnerable. The report estimates that around 6.5 million BTC, roughly one-third of total supply, could be at risk under such a scenario.

A large portion of that comes from address reuse, often linked to major custodians and institutions. However, this is considered a fixable issue. Simply moving funds to fresh addresses with hidden public keys significantly reduces exposure without requiring protocol changes.

As a reminder, the quantum narrative has come into focus in the crypto community concerned about the potential catastrophe that advances in this area could bring to blockchain, particularly after Cointelegraph’s article ‘Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work.’

Commenting on the article’s key points, Dr. Edoardo Persichetti, FAU Associate Professor, co-author of the NIST-standardized HQC, General Chair of EUROCRYPT 2026, and advisor at qLABS, explained that we might not have enough time to wait for a perfect solution. As he told TechGaged:

“Threat model is not symmetric: adversaries engaged in ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ operations are already collecting encrypted traffic today. (…) Waiting for mathematical certainty that can never fully arrive because no public-key scheme is unconditionally secure is not a rational strategy. It is an excuse for inaction.”

Bitcoin’s upgrade path is already taking shape

Indeed, developers are not waiting for quantum breakthroughs to act. The report by Presidio Bitcoin highlights ongoing work on post-quantum cryptography, which would replace current signature schemes with quantum-resistant alternatives.

One likely direction involves hash-based signatures such as SHRINCS and SHRIMPS, which rely on cryptographic primitives already used in Bitcoin. Though these solutions come with trade-offs like larger data sizes, they offer a practical path forward.

There are also proposals for new transaction formats that allow dual spending paths. This means users could transact normally today, keeping a quantum-safe fallback option ready if needed.

At the same time, developer attention is rising fast. Discussions around quantum-related topics on Bitcoin’s main development forums have surged from about 5% in 2024 to roughly 50% in 2026, signaling a clear shift in priorities.

The report also challenges another common concern: migration speed. According to its estimates, most of Bitcoin’s value could move to quantum-safe addresses within weeks if needed, which suggests the network can adapt quickly under pressure.

Still, some open questions remain, particularly around legacy coins that are never upgraded. Whether those funds remain spendable or face restrictions could become one of the most contentious debates in Bitcoin’s future.

For now, Bitcoin’s approach to quantum risk is cautious and incremental, but already well underway.