Arthur Hayes Ties Bitcoin Rally To AI Spending Boom

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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the combination of AI infrastructure spending and rising fiat liquidity is creating the perfect setup for another major Bitcoin (BTC) rally. In a new essay titled “The Butterfly Touch,” he argued that governments and banks are effectively being forced to print more money to fund AI expansion and geopolitical competition. Hayes believes that wave of liquidity is already pushing Bitcoin higher, and BTC has been outperforming several traditional risk assets since the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated.

Hayes Says AI And War Are Driving New Liquidity

Indeed, in a Substack post shared on May 12, Hayes described the current AI race between the U.S. and China as an unprecedented capital spending cycle fueled by nationalism and debt. As he wrote:

“The combination of the political will to win the AI race and the financial will to fund the build-out with printed money and bank loans produces the perfect environment for crypto.”

According to Hayes, hyperscalers and governments are pouring hundreds of billions into AI data centers, semiconductors, electricity generation, and defense systems tied to machine intelligence. He argued that this spending wave can’t continue without aggressive credit expansion from central and commercial banks.

The essay pointed to surging AI CAPEX forecasts, growing bank lending tied to data centers, and balance sheet expansion from both the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China. Hayes believes those conditions create a long-term bullish backdrop for Bitcoin and the crypto market. He wrote:

“There will be vastly more units of fiat tomorrow than today, and the rate of change is accelerating due to rapidly increasing yearly AI and electrification CAPEX expenditures.”

Hayes also tied the trend directly to geopolitics, arguing that the U.S.-Iran war exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains and energy infrastructure, forcing countries to spend heavily on energy security and domestic production.

Bitcoin Could Reclaim $126K, Hayes Says

Hayes argued Bitcoin has already started reacting to the new liquidity regime. He said BTC bottomed around $60,000 earlier this year before rebounding sharply as markets began pricing in more monetary expansion. As Hayes said:

“(…) Retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”

He added that many investors still underestimate Bitcoin’s sensitivity to expanding fiat liquidity because the asset underperformed gold and tech stocks over the past two years.

Hayes expects the rally to intensify if Bitcoin pushes decisively through key resistance zones, especially around $90,000, where he believes short sellers and options traders could accelerate upside momentum. 

Meanwhile, at press time on May 13, BTC was trading at $81,028.52, up 0.2% on the day, down 0.4% across the week, and gaining 14.1% over the past month, per the latest price chart data.

The Maelstrom CIO also revealed he is increasing exposure to higher-risk crypto assets during the current cycle. Alongside Bitcoin, Hayes highlighted Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), and NEAR as projects he believes could benefit from the broader liquidity-driven bull market.