Bitcoin Braces for FOMC as Familiar Pattern Returns

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into one of its most historically dangerous weeks, and the setup looks eerily similar to every major correction of 2025. With the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC decision incoming, traders are watching the charts with a mix of anxiety and déjà vu.

This is because this year, Bitcoin has reacted to FOMC days with near surgical consistency. Across the seven meetings held so far in 2025, Bitcoin has fallen after six of them, according to the analysis shared by cryptocurrency trading expert Ali Martinez on December 9.

The only exception was a brief 15% rally in May. Every other announcement has triggered a sharp downside, sometimes immediately, sometimes after Jerome Powell’s press conference, which is the moment volatility usually hits hardest.

Year of Repeated FOMC Selloffs

The pattern is hard to ignore, with a decline of 27% on January 29, a 14% dip on March 19, an 8% drop on June 18, losing 6% on July 30, going down 7% on September 17, and falling as much as 29% on October 29. 

The most recent meeting delivered one of the worst drops of the year, with Bitcoin plunging nearly 30%. Now, as traders approach the December announcement, historical repetition is the loudest signal on the chart.

Currently, the price of BTC stands at $90,212.91, down 1.97% on the day, gaining 3.88% across the past week, and losing 11.28% on its monthly chart, per the most recent information.

Rate-Cut Hopes Meet Market Reality

Heading into the December 10 decision, the market is pricing in an 87.4% probability of a rate cut, the highest expectation of the year. In theory, lower rates are bullish for risk assets, crypto especially, and optimism tends to build in the days before the event.

But 2025’s data tells a different story. Even when optimism is high, Bitcoin has repeatedly sold off once the Fed actually speaks, especially after Powell’s 8:30 PM CET press conference, where forward guidance often reshapes market expectations.

This clash, between what traders hope for and how Bitcoin actually responds, has defined every Fed week this year.

What This Means for Bitcoin Now

Statistically, Bitcoin enters the December FOMC meeting with a strong historical tendency toward volatility, a 6-of-7 likelihood of downside, and a market that has repeatedly been caught off guard by the Fed’s tone.

If the pattern holds, BTC faces elevated risk heading into the final Fed decision of 2025. And with volatility clustering around FOMC days all year long, traders know that whatever happens on the night of December 10, Bitcoin won’t stay quiet.

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