From Boom to Balance: McGlone Warns BTC May Cool Into 2026

Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior macro strategist Mike McGlone cautioned that Bitcoin (BTC)’s underperformance relative to traditional risk assets may signal a fading bull market spilling over into 2026, despite strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and heightened volatility.

Bitcoin’s 2025 Lag Raises Reversion Risks

As it happens, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone has highlighted that Bitcoin’s performance through November 10, 2025, was up just 13% year-to-date (YTD), which means it was lagging significantly behind the S&P 500’s 17% total return, per his X post on November 11.

According to his warning, “weakness in Bitcoin relative to beta in Q4 could carry into 2026.” Furthermore, he added that the underperformance was notable given Bitcoin’s higher volatility and continued ETF inflows.

Indeed, the Bloomberg Intelligence chart shows Bitcoin’s yearly candle flattening beneath the S&P 500’s steady trajectory, suggesting that risk assets may be diverging. Historically, such relative weakness often precedes a prolonged consolidation or cyclical downturn in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, McGlone’s projected range for 2026 – $50,000 to $150,000 – underscores both upside potential and significant reversion risk as macro conditions tighten. The strategist has noted that Bitcoin’s current position resembles prior cycle pauses following parabolic advances, when investor optimism cooled before the next major phase.

For the time being, the cryptocurrency market’s representative asset was changing hands at the price of $104,715.67, which indicates a decline of 0.42% in the last 24 hours, amid gaining 2.92% across the previous seven days, and as it has accumulated a loss of 8.99% on its monthly chart, per the latest data.

All things considered, Bitcoin seems to be in a tough position, given that its cycle top might have already happened in late October, and long-term Bitcoin holders have dumped over 371,000 BTC since July this year, signaling a major shift in holder behavior, but which doesn’t necessarily mean a bad thing.

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