New Bitcoin Whales Hold Most Realized Cap – First Time Ever

Bitcoin (BTC) may be trading like a market in transition, and the reason might be very simple: control has shifted from long-term “OG” whales to newer whale wallets that are more exposed to volatility.

In a new CryptoQuant analysis by MorenoDV shared on January 21, the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry monitoring platform said that for the first time, “new whales” now represent a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term whale cohorts.

This is a key on-chain signal that the market’s marginal supply is being dictated by newer, more reactive capital.

What “Realized Cap” Is Actually Signaling

Realized Cap is an on-chain metric that values BTC based on the last time coins moved, effectively creating an aggregate cost basis for the market rather than using the current spot price.

The key point is that, when Realized Cap share shifts toward “new whales,” it implies a large chunk of supply has recently changed hands at elevated prices, moving influence away from cycle-tested holders and toward capital that entered later in the trend.

In MorenoDV’s definition here, “new whales” refer to short-term holder whale wallets (holding >1,000 BTC) with UTXO age below 155 days.

Why New Whales May Be Steering Bitcoin’s Next Move

The author said the realized price of this new whale cohort sits near $98K, while BTC trades below that zone. That gap matters because it can change behavior fast: underwater holders tend to react differently than deeply profitable ones.

He estimates new whales are sitting on roughly $6B in unrealized losses, and argues that this cohort has been a major driver of realized losses since the market peak, selling into weakness and using short-lived rebounds to reduce exposure.

If that’s accurate, it helps explain why Bitcoin can feel “heavy” on rallies and fragile on breakdowns. It’s because the most influential cohort is managing drawdown risk, not pressing new conviction.

OG Whales: Profitable, Patient, And Less Forced

MorenoDV contrasts that with long-term holder whales, which it places at a realized price around $40K, meaning they remain deeply in profit even after a drawdown.

While some profit-taking can still occur, the author’s core argument is that long-term whales are not the cohort defining short-term direction right now, because they’re not forced sellers and have less emotional pressure tied to spot volatility.

What This Means For Traders Right Now

MorenoDV’s takeaway is that:

“Market direction is now dictated by new whales. They hold the most realized capital, exhibit the highest turnover, and are the most emotionally and financially exposed to price volatility.”

In practical terms, that suggests Bitcoin may remain choppy until one of the two things happens.

Either a recovery takes place, where BTC reclaims levels closer to the new whales’ cost basis, relieving pressure and reducing “sell the bounce” behavior, or there’s a capitulation where the cohort finally exhausts selling, transferring supply again to stronger hands.

Until then, the author frames the market as being in a regime where distribution can dominate accumulation, especially around sharp volatility events.

Currently, Bitcoin is changing hands at the price of $89,259.82, down 2% on the day, declining 6.2% across the week, and recording a 0.5% loss over the past month, according to the most recent chart information.

Bottom Line

If this analysis is correct, Bitcoin isn’t just reacting to macro headlines or exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, but to who is holding the most influential cost basis right now.

And according to the report, that group of newer whales is more exposed and more likely to trade emotionally under pressure, which could keep BTC’s next leg noisy until this “new whale” stress test resolves.

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