Monero Nears Historic Resistance On Monthly Chart

Monero (XMR) is once again trading near a price zone that has defined its long-term structure for years, a level that previously capped upside during two separate major market cycles, raising a familiar question of whether this breakout attempt is different.

Indeed, renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez posted Monero’s monthly chart on December 22, where it’s evident that XMR is pressing into a resistance band that rejected price during prior rallies, most notably around the 2020-2021 cycle peak and again during the 2022 recovery phase.

Each time, momentum stalled, and XMR entered a prolonged corrective or consolidation period. Now, after a steady multi-year grind higher, the price is back at that same decision zone.

Why This Resistance Level Matters For XMR

Unlike short-term chart patterns, monthly resistance levels reflect years of supply distribution and long-term positioning. When price revisits these zones, it often triggers a battle between long-term holders taking profit and new buyers betting on a structural shift.

Historically, Monero has struggled to maintain acceptance above this level, even during broader market strength. That makes the current test especially important. A clean monthly close above resistance would signal a potential change in market behavior, one that previous cycles failed to deliver.

At the same time, repeated tests of resistance can weaken it. With each approach, overhead supply tends to thin out, increasing the odds of a breakout if demand remains persistent.

For the time being, XMR is changing hands at the price of $456.14, recording a decline of 1.96% in the last 24 hours, but having gained 11.25% across the previous seven days, and advancing as much as 27.09% on its monthly chart, per the latest data.

What To Watch Next

From a technical perspective, this is not a moment for aggressive conviction in either direction. A rejection could once again send XMR into consolidation or retracement, while a confirmed monthly breakout would place Monero in uncharted territory relative to its recent history.

Right now, Monero sits at a crossroads, caught between a ceiling that has held for years and a market structure that suggests growing pressure beneath it. Whether this time is different will likely be decided by how the price behaves at the monthly close, not by short-term volatility.

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