Bitcoin May Not Be Cheap Until $46,457, CVDD Warns

Bitcoin (BTC) may still be correcting, but one long-term on-chain model suggests patient buyers should keep their eyes on a much lower level, as the CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) indicator points to $46,457 as a historically strong accumulation zone for Bitcoin.

Specifically, the CVDD model is designed to identify areas where long-term holders have historically stepped in during deep market drawdowns. Unlike short-term technical indicators, CVDD focuses on on-chain behavior, tracking when older coins move and how that activity lines up with price cycles.

Popular cryptocurrency trading specialist Ali Martinez observed this indicator in the analysis of Bitcoin’s price movements, which he shared in an X post published on December 22.

Why The CVDD Level Matters For Bitcoin

Historically, Bitcoin has only reached the CVDD ‘buy zone’ during periods of extreme pessimism, typically near major cycle lows. Previous interactions with CVDD levels occurred during bear market bottoms rather than routine pullbacks, making it a signal more relevant to long-term investors than short-term traders.

For the time being, the price of BTC stands at $90,078.69, up 2.08% on the day, gaining 0.64% across the week, and accumulating an increase of 7.22% over the past month, according to the most recent chart data.

Indeed, Bitcoin is trading well above the $46,457 level highlighted by the model. That doesn’t mean a move there is guaranteed. Instead, it suggests that if broader market conditions deteriorate further, CVDD identifies that area as a price zone where long-term risk has historically shifted in favor of buyers.

From a cycle perspective, CVDD often aligns with moments when weak hands have exited, and long-term accumulation quietly resumes. These phases are rarely comfortable and often coincide with negative headlines, falling sentiment, and widespread calls for lower prices.

What This Means For Investors Right Now

The CVDD signal doesn’t imply immediate action. Rather, it provides a roadmap for investors who prefer patience over chasing momentum. If Bitcoin continues to weaken and approaches this zone, history suggests that risk-reward dynamics may improve significantly for long-term positions.

For now, CVDD serves as a reminder that Bitcoin’s deepest opportunities tend to appear long after optimism fades. This is not when volatility is highest, but when conviction is lowest.

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