Is It a Good Time to Buy Crypto Right Now?

We’re seeing fragile conditions, a very cautious crypto market, pressured by elevated market stress and bearish investor sentiment. Broader macroeconomic pressures and fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East weigh heavily on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. Additionally, several key developments are coming together this week and are bound to affect crypto prices. All this said, there are signals indicating that a potential recovery is forming. But let’s see if the conditions are good for a crypto investment. 

Crypto trading volume

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization is largely unchanged since March 30, now standing at $2.38 trillion. However, it has decreased over the 7-day timeframe from $2.5 trillion. It has also turned back to red in the 14-day, 30-day, and 3-month periods.

At the time of writing on Tuesday morning (March 31, UTC), the total crypto trading volume in the last day is at $95.5 billion. 

Over the past day, Tether (USDT), Bitcoin (BTC), and Ethereum (ETH) led the list, with $70.77 billion, $36.7 billion, and $17 billion, respectively. We find the same ranking in the weekly and monthly rankings. Bitcoin recorded over $1 trillion in volume over the past month, followed by Ethereum’s $542.4 billion.

Altcoin prices drop 

Some 30 of the top 100 coins per market cap have seen their prices rise at the time of writing, while the rest dropped. Rain (RAIN) fell the most, 6.8% to the price of $0.007796, followed by Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET)’s 6.6% to $0.2296. At the same time, Memecore (M) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are the highest gainers, having appreciated by 4.8% and 3.7% to $2.35 and $469, respectively. 

We find a similar picture in the 7-day timeframe, with some 25 of the top 100 coins in the green. The week’s winners are Siren (SIREN) and Memecore, which surged 65% and 38% over this period, and these are the only double-digit rises on the list. On the other hand, seven coins posted double-digit drops, the highest of which is Provenance Blockchain (HASH)’s 30.5%, now trading at $0.01039.

Now, let’s shift our focus to the top 10 coins. We find all but one red over the past day. Only ETH appreciated, and even though it is barely up, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) posted the highest loss of 4.16%, currently changing hands at $36. XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) are the only other two coins with drops above 1%, now trading at $1.31 and $0.09128, respectively. 

In the 7-day period, the only green coin is Tron (TRX), having appreciated 3.45% to $0.3209. Solana (SOL) and XRP posted the highest losses. SOL decreased by 9.1%, while XRP fell 7.3%.

Bitcoin price barely moves

Bitcoin has barely changed over the past day, falling just 0.1%, currently standing at $67,235. It’s down 5% over the past week though, as well as 47% from its all-time high of $126,080. However, it’s still green in the 1-month period, though just barely, with a 0.6% rise.

The price continued the downtrend through the last week, falling below the $68,000 mark to find support near the $65,000 level. The weekend brought a modest recovery towards $67,000. Should there be further downside, we may see additional retest of lows in the $60,000–65,000 zone. A rebound would lead to above $70,000 and could open a path towards $80.000. For now, the market is generally on a downturn.

Ethereum is the day’s winner

Ethereum is the only green coin among the top 10. It appreciated 0.4% in 24 hours, currently changing hands at $2,050. Over the past week, however, it dropped 4.8%. Overall, it’s up 4.4% in a month and 11% in a year, while it pulled back by nearly 60% from the ATH of $4,946.

The market is generally trending downwards at the moment, and though ETH tends to outperform its peers, including BTC, it can’t escape the pressure. The price is likely to continue the downtrend, possibly reentering the intraweek-low zone at the $1,970 level. This would allow pullbacks towards $1,920, where it could attempt to establish support. If lost, the momentum would likely accelerate downward. A bull is currently unlikely, but should the tides turn, ETH would retest $2,100, looking to form key breakout zones.

Sentiment shows fear

At the time of writing, the crypto market sentiment stands at 28, firmly within the fear zone. This is somewhat higher than the pre-weekend’s 23, but still lower than the 35 recorded last Wednesday. The highest point over the past 30 days was the neutral 43. 

The current level, the latest drop, and the inability to hold a neutral level indicate nervous and risk-averse investors. As a result of negative views hitting the markets in constant waves, including geopolitical uncertainty and bearish macro moves, many investors are selling or reducing their exposure. While this weak confidence makes it easier for prices to drop further, the situation also presents buying opportunities.

Key drivers behind market moves

According to Glassnode, on-chain data shows a market that is still pressured but with some early signs of potential stabilization. “Profitability has declined, loss realization has accelerated, and activity has weakened, yet capital outflows are easing,” the latest report says. All in all, “the market appears to be transitioning from active distribution towards a more neutral footing. While conditions remain fragile, easing sell-side pressure and stabilizing flows suggest the groundwork for a potential recovery is forming, though stronger demand is still required to confirm a sustained shift.”

ETFs suggest softening appetite 

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are both a key market driver and an indicator of its direction. When it comes to BTC spot ETFs, the majority of the past week posted significant outflows, the highest among these being $225.48 million on Friday. Yet, the new week began with minor inflows of $69.44 million. Given that the last week began with significant positive flows but then turned negative, the start of the week is not the best indicator. 

Overall, weekly ETF flows changed course, going from a $56 million inflow to a $50.2 million outflow. Per Glassnode, this “swing in institutional demand” is not extreme, but it does suggest that “appetite has softened and investors may be turning more cautious near current levels.”

Meanwhile, on Monday, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a notice of filing and immediate effectiveness for proposed rule changes by Cboe BZX Exchange regarding the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. Additionally, French multinational universal bank BNP Paribas has expanded its investment offering and added six crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs), enabling BTC and ETH exposure to retail clients in France.

Key expiry is behind us

Notably, BTC dropped to a three-week low on Friday, March 27, following one of the largest options expiries in the derivatives market. March 27 saw the quarterly expiry of some $14 billion in Bitcoin.

“With the expiry behind us, the price pin has faded, and the market is beginning to show its true directional intent,” said Pratik Kala, a portfolio manager at digital-asset hedge fund Apollo Crypto.

Events to watch

There are several major events to keep an eye on this week, specifically. Two have already passed. One is the quarterly options expiry, and the second is the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Monday. The speech didn’t suggest incoming rate cuts, which could prevent sharper sell-offs, but it did signal uncertainty around inflation. Overall, bearish pressure continues to squeeze the crypto market.  

The next one is the key geopolitical factor and the top driver right now, specifically potential war escalation, continued volatility surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and any new developments, especially military operations and additional oil route disruptions. As this is developing, crypto is flipping between a risk asset and a safe haven.

The next big factor is the U.S. labor market data, as non-farm payrolls (NFP) will be released on Friday, April 3, with an expected rebound after a previous, weak print. Notably, the release lands on Good Friday when traditional markets are closed, leaving crypto as the only live reaction market. This may lead to extreme volatility spikes and overreactions due to thin liquidity.

Finally, a crypto-specific catalyst to watch out for is the FTX payout on March 31, when $2.2 billion will be returned to creditors. This may result in a short-term sell pressure as people cash out. However, some may inject liquidity back into crypto.

Is it a good time to buy crypto right now?

Based on what we’ve seen above, this is a good time to buy some crypto. The market is still leaning bearish, driven by the uncertainty it hates so much, and it remains strongly cautious. The prices are still down, creating buying opportunities. 

There isn’t really one catalyst we can speak of, but major crypto, liquidity, geopolitical, and macro events that will impact the market in the same week. The size of the impact will depend on the size of these individual factors, and it typically produces fast moves rather than slow, long-term trends. Moreover, we may also be seeing signals for bottoming and a potential recovery forming.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.