Downside Risk Looms for Ethereum, Warns Bloomberg Analyst

Ethereum (ETH) is once again drifting toward the lower end of its multi-year trading range.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, the risks are skewed decisively lower, especially if equity market volatility returns. That macro backdrop could make Ethereum’s $2,000 level far more fragile than many investors expect.

Now, many traders are wondering if ETH is consolidating or slowly rolling over as macro pressure builds.

Ethereum Stuck Inside a Two-Year Price Range

Ethereum has been locked between $2,000 and $4,000 since 2023, repeatedly failing to establish a sustained breakout above resistance, as McGlone pointed out in an X post shared on January 25.

Long-term price data shows ETH struggling to hold gains after each rally attempt, whereas downside moves increasingly test the lower boundary of the range. According to McGlone, this behavior reflects growing structural pressure rather than simple consolidation.

*Ethereum yearly price chart since 2019. Source: Mike McGlone*

As he explained, pointing to macro conditions rather than cryptocurrency-specific catalysts:

“I see greater risks of it staying below $2,000 than above $4,000.”

Why Stock Market Volatility Matters for Ethereum

The warning hinges on one key factor: equity market volatility.

Ethereum has increasingly traded like a risk asset, showing strong correlation with stocks during periods of stress. When volatility spikes, speculative assets tend to face liquidity-driven selling, and ETH has historically underperformed during those phases.

McGlone argues that a rebound in stock volatility could accelerate downside pressure, pushing Ethereum toward (or potentially below) the lower end of its long-standing range.

This dynamic raises concerns that ETH’s perceived “floor” near $2,000 may be weaker than many assume, particularly if broader markets enter a risk-off phase.

Meanwhile, the crypto market’s biggest altcoin is changing hands at the price of $2,883, which reflects a decline of 1.7% on the day, a more significant 10.4% dip across the past week, and a 1.6% drop over the month, according to the latest information.

*Ethereum price 30-day chart. Source:* *CoinGecko*

What This Means for Ethereum’s Outlook

Ethereum’s technical structure suggests distribution rather than accumulation, with repeated failures near resistance and growing sensitivity to macro shocks.

Though long-term fundamentals remain intact, price behavior implies the market is still searching for a durable equilibrium. A sustained move above $4,000 would invalidate the bearish thesis, but for now, momentum appears capped.

Until volatility subsides or risk appetite returns, Ethereum may remain vulnerable to a deeper downside than upside surprise.