Bitcoin Would Need to Reach $1.7M per BTC to Match Gold’s Market Cap

Gold currently holds an estimated market capitalization of around $35 trillion, maintaining its position as the world’s largest store-of-value asset. While Bitcoin is often compared to the precious metal as a digital store of value, TechGaged’s latest research suggests that the cryptocurrency would need to trade near multi-million-dollar levels to approach gold’s scale.

According to TechGaged.com‘s findings, Bitcoin would need to reach approximately $1.78 million per coin under a base-case scenario in which gold’s market capitalization is $35 trillion. The analysis uses a market-cap parity model rather than a price forecast, comparing Bitcoin’s circulating supply against different global gold valuation scenarios.

Understanding the Three Market Scenarios

The TechGaged Research chart outlines three possible gold market cap benchmarks:

• Conservative Scenario ($30T gold market cap, $1.34T BTC market cap): Bitcoin would need to reach roughly $1.43 million per coin, assuming a full 21 million supply.
• Base Case Model ($35T gold market cap, $1.34T BTC market cap): The required price rises to approximately $1.78 million per BTC, assuming an estimated current circulating supply of 19.7 million coins.
• Extended Macro Scenario ($40T gold market cap, $1.34T BTC market cap): A stronger global demand for gold would push the parity level closer to $2.03 million per Bitcoin.

Rather than predicting future prices, these scenarios illustrate the massive capital gap between traditional safe-haven assets and emerging digital networks.

A Broader Look at Today’s Markets

The global asset landscape indicates that investors are increasingly divided between two major themes: tangible safety and technological growth.

Precious metals remain at the top of the market-cap rankings, reflecting ongoing demand for stability amid macro uncertainty. At the same time, mega-cap technology firms — particularly those tied to artificial intelligence — continue to absorb enormous flows of capital.

Bitcoin sits between these two narratives. Its volatility and correlation with risk assets often align it with technology stocks, yet its long-term narrative continues to draw comparisons to gold as a hedge against monetary expansion.

Why the Gap Matters

The difference between Bitcoin’s current valuation and gold’s scale is not just about price — it represents decades of institutional trust, central bank reserves, and deeply liquid markets supporting the precious metal.

Market-cap parity models highlight that Bitcoin remains early in the broader global financial system. Even under optimistic assumptions, matching gold’s size would require a structural expansion in adoption, liquidity, and institutional participation rather than short-term speculative demand.

Digital Gold — Or a New Asset Class?

The findings also reinforce a growing debate within crypto markets: whether Bitcoin is evolving into a digital version of gold or forming a distinct asset class.

As macro conditions shift and capital rotates between safe havens and growth sectors, Bitcoin’s role continues to evolve somewhere between a technology network and a monetary alternative.

For now, the numbers presented in the research chart underscore a simple reality: while Bitcoin has reshaped the conversation around digital scarcity, gold still defines the scale of global store-of-value assets.