XRP Max Pain Hits $1.90 – Shakeout Before Moon?

XRP fell to $1.90 amid renewed tariff threats and CLARITY Act delays, triggering fresh capitulation among holders, but some analysts view this as a coordinated shakeout, with technical compression signaling a high-probability breakout.

As institutions test assets before scaling adoption, traders are wondering if this is the dip that positions believers for the next leg higher, whether XRP’s current levels are a buying opportunity, or if the macro risks are too high right now.

Market Reaction and Analyst Warnings

Cryptocurrency market analyst Zach Rector’s recent video, streamed on January 21, highlighted the latest pullback as “max pain” orchestrated by market makers to flush out weak hands ahead of full institutional adoption.

He referenced his prior warning of rejection at the $2.27 Fibonacci level (actual high $2.20), followed by a drop below $2, which played out after President Donald Trump’s 10% EU tariffs to pressure Denmark over Greenland, delayed CLARITY Act markup, and broader risk-off sentiment.

Bitcoin first dropped to $90K, wiping $215 billion from the total crypto market cap as markets reacted post-holiday. Bond yields spiked (10-year to 4.3%, 30-year nearing 5%), reflecting investor caution and potential mortgage pressure.

Meanwhile, in an X post, fellow crypto expert EGRAG CRYPTO pointed to XRP/BTC showing Super Guppy ribbon compression and a bullish rectangle on the weekly chart. Multiple support tests and resistance rejections indicate supply absorption and re-accumulation after prolonged decline.

XRP respected Fibonacci levels throughout the move, forming a higher low at $1.90 after briefly touching $1.85.

#XRP / #BTC Super Guppy Compression + Bullish Rectangle: What Comes Next Will Shock Most:

💡This is not noise. This is structure tightening.

🏳️ Super Guppy ribbons fully compressed
▫️Selling pressure exhausted
▫️Clear transition regime
▫️Volatility expansion approaching… pic.twitter.com/b08y78vMzQ

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) January 21, 2026

Currently, XRP is trading at $1.89, down 1.3% on the day, losing 10.4% across the week, and recording a loss of 1.9% over the past month, according to the latest price charts.

*XRP price 7-day chart. Source:* *CoinGecko*

Why This Setup Could Lead to Strong Reversal

Rector frames the moment as part of the “transfer of wealth,” where prepared investors buy below fundamental value during suppression phases. Indeed, he advocates dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to lower averages (his own reduced from $3.40 to $2.17) and maintaining a large buy order at $1.66.

Gold and silver hitting new highs ($4,750/oz and ~$96/oz) serve as proof that early positioning in undervalued assets pays off when liquidity returns.

EGRAG’s analysis gives 60-70% odds of a bullish breakout from the rectangle in 3-6 months, with a transition phase (grey-to-green ribbons) preceding volatility expansion. Extended consolidation remains possible (30-40%), but bearish breakdown is low probability.

For investors, this offers 100%-300% ROI potential simply returning to prior highs or all-time levels if adoption speeds up after the CLARITY Act and liquidity cycles resume. Rector stresses community resilience over hype, positioning through real analysis rather than emotion.