XRP Capitulation Nears End As Sellers Show Exhaustion

In Brief

• XRP’s prolonged decline shows signs of capitulation.
• Downside momentum appears to be weakening.
• Sentiment exhaustion suggests a possible turning point.

XRP has spent most of the past year grinding lower, testing patience across the market. But according to one cryptocurrency analyst, the structure of the move and the mood around it suggest the capitulation may be entering its final phase, nearing exhaustion.

Indeed, renowned crypto trading expert Zach Rector has shared these conclusions in a video on his YouTube channel, streamed on February 3, opening the question of whether this might be exhaustion or just another pause. As rector put it in the video:

“If you want to call it a bear market, sure. I’m not going to argue or spend any time debating semantics. Let’s recognize what’s taking place and what happens next and how to take advantage of it.”

What The Market Has Been Through

Rector notes that XRP has fallen nearly 60% over roughly 200 days, a drawdown large enough to meet traditional definitions of a bear market. More importantly, the decline has been accompanied by broad retail capitulation, with traders openly questioning their positions and the asset’s future.

“If you gauge sentiment in the retail space, it’s full capitulation, or at least very close to completing full capitulation of the retail trader.”

Historically, those moments tend to appear late in corrective cycles rather than at the beginning. Rector argues the market is no longer debating whether XRP is in trouble, but whether the pain has already done its job.

He also points to stalled regulatory progress last year, particularly around market structure and stablecoin yield clarity, as a key factor behind the prolonged downturn.

Why Analysts See A Potential Turning Zone

Rector leans on a cluster of technical and macro signals rather than a single trigger. Negative funding rates, completed downside order-flow zones, and overlapping Elliott Wave counts across Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP all suggest downside momentum is weakening.

Though he doesn’t rule out one more brief shakeout, he frames any additional downside as limited relative to the size of the correction already absorbed. In his view, markets rarely offer perfect entries once capitulation becomes obvious.

On the fundamental side, he highlights improving policy dialogue, tokenization activity on the XRP Ledger, and expanding institutional infrastructure as reasons the longer-term backdrop looks stronger now than it did earlier in the decline.

For the time being, the price of XRP stands at $1.59, down 0.9% on the day, losing 17.3% across the week, and declining 25.2% over the past month, per the most recent chart information.

*XRP price 7-day chart. Source: CoinGecko*

The key takeaway is timing. Corrections tend to end when disbelief peaks as opposed to optimism returning. For XRP, the combination of sentiment exhaustion and slowing downside pressure suggests the market may be closer to resolution than many expect.