A fragile ceasefire has cooled global hotspots, yet the markets refuse to play by the script. Gold is charging toward psychological $5,000 territory on safe-haven inertia, while Bitcoin stalls below $75,000. 

This “Ceasefire Trade” isn’t just noise—it’s a tale of divergent fundamentals and clashing technical signals.The conventional wisdom says ceasefire news should deflate safe-haven assets. 

Yet the current move is driven by a different mechanism: de‑escalation raises the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding bullion

Gold prices could move back above $5,000 per ounce if we’re on a path toward de‑escalation, as rate‑cut expectations could creep back in…

Said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. 

Lower oil prices and easing inflation are reviving expectations of 2026 Fed cuts, supporting gold even as geopolitical risk premiums fade

Gold’s Relentless Climb: Is $5,000 the Next Summit?

As of April 10, 2026, at 13:37 UTC, the weekly XAUUSD chart paints a bullish masterpiece. Price sits at $4,773.31 (up 0.17%), hugging a multi-month uptrend.

The Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2) dots trail beneath the candles, confirming trend support, while RSI (14, close) reads 69.21—strong momentum without overbought exhaustion.

The all-time high of $5,597.89 looms large, and recent wicks show bulls defending the $4,700 zone with conviction.

Fundamentally, the ceasefire hasn’t erased inflation scars or central-bank buying sprees. 

BRICS nations continue accumulating physical gold to hedge de-dollarization, while persistent U.S. debt concerns keep the yellow metal glittering as a non-yielding store of value. 

Even with reduced geopolitical heat, gold’s role as the ultimate insurance policy remains intact.

Bitcoin’s Technical Trap: MACD Is Sounding Alarms

On the BTCUSD weekly chart, timestamped April 10, 2026, 13:34 UTC. Bitcoin trades at $72,163.29 (up 0.50% intraday).

The MACD (close, 12, 26, 9) flashes deep red: histogram at –73.60 and signal line at –8,526.74, confirming bearish divergence. 

Price has failed multiple times to clear $75,000, forming a clear distribution pattern after the 2025 blow-off top near $126,000.

The chart screams consolidation with downside risk—blue SAR dots hovering above price reinforce the bearish bias.

The Geopolitical Calendar

Two major diplomatic developments are driving the current market dynamic:

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 32‑hour ceasefire over Orthodox Easter weekend, with fighting paused from Saturday afternoon until midnight Sunday. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for extended talks. Meanwhile, the U.S.‑Iran ceasefire has held, with both sides agreeing to a two‑week pause in hostilities.

Will Capital Rotate From Gold to Bitcoin if Peace Holds?

Gold is eyeing $5,000 because the market is pricing Fed cuts. Bitcoin is testing $75,000 because the market is waiting for risk appetite to return. 

The ceasefire trade has pushed both toward key levels, but for opposite reasons.

The question now is whether capital will rotate from gold into Bitcoin when peace takes hold, or whether the two will continue to diverge. The weekly charts suggest the answer lies with the Fed.