The Bitcoin Quantum Narrative Just Faced a Reality Check

Concerns around quantum computing and Bitcoin security resurfaced this week after fresh claims suggested a large share of BTC could be vulnerable to future quantum attacks. However, a new analysis from CoinShares challenges those assumptions.

CoinShares agues that the real exposure is far smaller than widely circulated estimates.

Therefore, by combining blockchain data with Bitcoin’s cryptographic structure, the report reframes what quantum risk actually means.

CoinShare Challenges Claims of Bitcoin Vulnerability

In its latest research note, CoinShares examined Bitcoin’s address types and signature exposure to evaluate how much BTC could be compromised by a powerful quantum computer.

According to the analysis, only around 10,200 BTC sit in legacy address formats that expose public keys in a way that could be theoretically vulnerable to a future quantum attack.

Importantly, these are primarily early Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs and reused Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH) addresses where public keys are already visible on-chain.

That figure stands in sharp contrast to claims suggesting up to 50% of Bitcoin’s supply could be at risk. Moreover, CoinShares pushed back on those estimates. Noting that the majority of BTC is held in modern address formats where public keys are not revealed until a transaction is spent.

Additionally, this analysis isn’t based on hypothetical wallet behavior or assumptions about user practices. Indeed, it reflects actual on-chain exposure as it exists today.

Quantum Computing Doesn’t Pose an Immediate Threat

No existing quantum computer is remotely capable of breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography. Furthermore, optimistic projections place such machines many years away.

Additionally, Bitcoin isn’t static. Therefore, the protocol can upgrade its cryptography as it has done in the past.

Similarly, if credible quantum threats emerge, Bitcoin can transition to quantum-resistant signature schemes through a soft fork well before practical attacks become viable.

Also, even in a worst-case scenario, only coins whose public keys are already exposed would be theoretically vulnerable.

Coins held in unused modern addresses remain protected, and holders can move funds to upgraded address formats long before any real risk materializes.

In short, the quantum threat remains theoretical, distant, and limited in scope. Therefore, CoinShares’ assessment reinforces that Bitcoin’s security remains intact under realistic technological timelines.

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