Exclusive: Crypto Trader Josh Rager Says Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle “Isn’t What It Used To Be”

As the world spirals down into more chaos, markets are responding violently. At the same time, AI is wreaking havoc not just in the job industry but in finance, crypto, and trading. Where does Bitcoin fit in all of this? Is it still the safe haven it was originally designed to be? How well is it doing, all things considered, and what can we expect going forward? 

On these topics, we spoke with Josh Rager, a prominent crypto trader and co-founder of the AI trading copilot app, Capra. His insights shed light on Bitcoin’s current state and where the market might be heading.

A long way to go before the next bull run

After peaking near $126,000, Bitcoin fell to roughly $61,000 before bouncing back to around $72,000, where it currently sits. But according to Rager, it’s too early to declare a new bull run.

“If you look at the data tracking institutional investment in Bitcoin funds, since the end of last year, institutions have mostly been pulling money out,” Rager explained. “The big wave of institutional money that drove 2024 is not really showing up the same way right now. That’s a red flag.”

At the same time, global liquidity is increasing: governments are spending, central banks are trying to avoid a crash, and China is pumping stimulus. “Conditions should eventually be good for Bitcoin,” Rager said. “There’s usually a two- to three-month lag before that money finds its way into crypto, so we might just be in that awkward in-between period.”

He also noted that while corporate buying continues, it’s concentrated in a few players. “Mostly it’s one company – Strategy – and a bunch of smaller guys copying what they’re doing. It’s not like big tech is suddenly moving cash into Bitcoin,” he said.

Regarding Bitcoin’s infamous four-year cycle, Rager sees it evolving rather than dying. “Those 75–85% crashes we saw before? I think that’s behind us. Bigger players holding long-term prevent panic selling. Slower gains, smaller dips – that’s just Bitcoin maturing as an asset.”

The Soul of Bitcoin vs. Wall Street

Rager emphasized that the Bitcoin network itself hasn’t changed: there will always be only 21 million coins. But its perception has shifted. “Bitcoin started as something outside the traditional financial system. Now the banks and institutions it was built against are buying it. That’s a weird shift to watch,” he said.

He believes both the “Wall Street version” and the “everyday money version” can coexist. “As long as the dollar keeps losing purchasing power, people will gravitate toward Bitcoin’s original vision. The real catalyst would be if small everyday Bitcoin transactions weren’t taxed. Right now, buying a coffee with Bitcoin is a taxable event, and that kills adoption.”

Corporate Adoption: The Next Frontier

At least 50 companies have created digital asset treasuries in the past six months, following Strategy’s lead. Rager predicts a future where holding zero Bitcoin might even be seen as a fiduciary risk.

“I think we’re getting closer to that being a real conversation, whether people want to admit it or not,” he says.

“Inflation sticks around, and cash keeps losing value. Bitcoin remains a modern form of gold. The U.S. government itself has around 200,000 seized Bitcoin, worth roughly $18 billion, and they’re officially not selling. They’re quietly treating it like a reserve asset,” he said. “In a few years, companies without Bitcoin may have to explain to their boardroom why.”

AI Traders: Enhancing Judgment, Not Replacing It

As for Artificial Intelligence, it is transforming trading. “Three to five years ago, tracking market news, sentiment, on-chain data, and macro factors in real time was only for big firms,” Rager said. “Now, one person with the right tools can do a version of that, and that’s a pretty big deal.”

He stressed that AI doesn’t replace good judgment, it just amplifies it. “The difference-maker is how you use the information. Risk management, emotional discipline, and position sizing become more important than ever. AI makes good judgment worth more, not less.”

Stablecoins and the Dollar’s Global Role

Finally, Rager highlighted a (perhaps) surprising trend: private-sector stablecoins may actually bolster the U.S. dollar globally. 

“Honestly, I think this might be one of the most important things happening in crypto right now and barely anyone outside of this space is talking about it,” he begins. 

“In countries like Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria, people are turning to dollar-denominated stablecoins instead of their collapsing local currencies. Without spending a single dollar, the private sector is spreading dollar adoption where traditional banking never reached,” he said.

There is risk, of course, if a major stablecoin fails, but overall, Rager sees crypto as quietly supporting the dollar’s relevance in a multipolar world.

In Conclusion

It seems Bitcoin is at an inflection point. It’s maturing as an asset, institutional dynamics are shifting, AI is reshaping trading, and regulatory frameworks will determine whether the original vision of Bitcoin as everyday money survives alongside its Wall Street persona. As Rager puts it, “Which version wins out long-term comes down to how governments handle regulation more than anything else.”

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