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Cryptocurrency markets opened the week under pressure as geopolitical tensions and macro risks collided. A breakdown in negotiations between Iran and the United States triggered a spike in oil prices and a broad risk-off move across global markets. Investors are now watching inflation data and central bank signals for the next direction.

Markets react to oil spike and geopolitical tension

Oil jumped roughly 7% to around $104 per barrel following renewed uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route. The escalation came after comments from Donald Trump suggesting the possibility of renewed military action as he criticized Iran’s stance in negotiations.

Risk assets reacted quickly. The crypto market lost around $70 billion in total capitalization over the weekend, slipping below $2.5 trillion as traders moved to reduce exposure. 

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped to $70,500 before stabilizing near $71,000, whereas Ethereum (ETH) fell below $2,200 and altcoins erased most of last week’s gains.

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has advanced 2%, reaching $72,530, which also suggests an increase of 3.7% across the past week and a 2.7% gain accumulated over the month, per the latest price chart data.

Inflation data and Fed signals in focus

The key macro event this week is the March Producer Price Index (PPI), which could confirm whether inflation pressures are building again. Rising oil prices are already feeding into expectations after a recent CPI increase driven by energy costs.

This puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, which may be forced to maintain or even tighten its rate stance if inflation continues to climb.

Additional data, including jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, along with multiple speeches from Fed officials, could shape expectations around interest rates.

Meanwhile, major banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will report earnings, adding further signals about the broader economy.

For crypto, the setup remains fragile. Rising inflation and geopolitical risk tend to tighten liquidity conditions, which historically weighs on risk assets unless sentiment quickly shifts.