Buckle Up: BTC’s Long-Term Chart Just Entered The Danger Zone

Bitcoin (BTC)’s long-term momentum just entered one of its most important decision zones, with its monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking below a level that historically defines whether a bull cycle remains intact.

According to the observations by renowned pseudonymous cryptocurrency trading specialist Egrag Crypto shared in an X post on January 12, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI breaking below this historical level is now forcing the market into a structural crossroads.

The next move, he says, could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its macro bull trend or enters a deeper consolidation phase.

Bitcoin’s Monthly RSI Breaks Below Key Bull Level

As it happens, Egrag Crypto had expected Bitcoin’s monthly RSI to hold above 60, a level that has defined every major bull cycle continuation over the past decade. Instead, RSI failed to hold the level and slipped into what he calls a neutral-to-slightly bearish zone.

That break changes the structure. In his words:

“I expected RSI to hold above 60 and continue toward the 80-90 cycle-top zone. Instead, RSI broke below 60, and that altered the structure.”

On long-term timeframes, RSI doesn’t just measure momentum, but also defines regime shifts. Historically, Bitcoin’s strongest bull expansions occur when the monthly RSI stays above 60 and trends toward the 80-90 zone, which marks macro cycle tops.

Breaking below that threshold pauses a bull market.

#BTC – Monthly RSI Update 👇:

I expected RSI to hold above 60 and continue toward the 80–90 cycle-top zone.

Instead, #RSI broke below 60, and that altered the structure.

📌According to the chart:
▫️We are now in the neutral-to-slightly bearish zone
▫️However, the #RSI… pic.twitter.com/NhNdvLyS35

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) January 12, 2026

Momentum Is Attempting To Rebuild

Despite the breakdown, Egrag Crypto notes that momentum is not collapsing. In fact, RSI curvature is now turning upward. This is important as curvature shifts often signal early trend reversals before the price confirms them. In previous cycles, this same zone has acted as a decision region rather than a final top or bottom.

According to Egrag Crypto:

“The RSI curvature is turning upward (momentum attempting to rebuild). This area historically acts as a decision zone, not a final verdict.”

In other words, Bitcoin is now sitting in a structural compression zone where either a breakout or a deeper reset becomes inevitable.

The Line In The Sand: RSI 60

For Egrag, the entire cycle now comes down to one level: RSI 60. The roadmap is simple. Either Bitcoin reclaims RSI 60, and the bull cycle resumes, at which point the 80-90 zone is back in play, or it rejects RSI 60, leading to a deeper consolidation or possibly a cycle shift toward RSI 38.

That RSI 38 region has historically aligned with macro bear market lows and extended accumulation phases. If momentum fails here, BTC could enter a prolonged sideways structure similar to past mid-cycle resets. If momentum reclaims 60, however, the long-term uptrend remains intact.

A Classic Mid-Cycle Compression Zone

This type of structure has appeared in every Bitcoin cycle. It’s the zone where leverage flushes, sentiment resets, and long-term positioning rotates before the next major trend expansion begins. Egrag frames it clearly:

“No hype. No fear. Just structure.”

For now, BTC isn’t breaking down, but it isn’t breaking out either. The market is waiting for confirmation, and the RSI 60 reclaim may be the signal that defines the next leg of the cycle.

Bitcoin price today

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at the price of $90,437.50, down 0.15% on the day, losing 2.58% across the week, and declining 0.16% over the past month, according to the latest chart information.