Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is “Dead,” Claims the World’s Smartest Man

Bitcoin (BTC)’s long-debated four-year cycle may be losing relevance, according to YoungHoon Kim, widely described as the “smartest man in the world” after being recognized with an IQ of 276.

Indeed, per his views, the original cryptocurrency asset could be entering a decade-long supercycle rather than another traditional boom-and-bust phase.

Specifically, in an X post on January 28, Kim said Bitcoin’s historical four-year rhythm is “dead,” arguing that the crypto market structure has fundamentally changed. 

Instead of sharp rallies followed by deep crypto winters tied to halving events, he believes Bitcoin is transitioning into a prolonged expansion driven by macro forces.

Questioning The Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s traditional cycle has centered on its halving events, which reduce mining rewards roughly every four years. Historically, those supply shocks have preceded major bull markets that peak 12-18 months later, followed by steep corrections. The supercycle thesis challenges that model. 

It suggests Bitcoin could experience longer, steadier uptrends, with pullbacks that resemble typical bull market corrections rather than full-scale bear markets. Supporters argue that Bitcoin’s growing integration into global finance has reduced the impact of halvings as the dominant driver.

Kim is not alone in this view. Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao floated a similar idea last year, pointing to institutional adoption and regulatory clarity as forces reshaping Bitcoin’s market behavior.

Macro Forces Take Center Stage

Under the supercycle framework, macro conditions matter more than protocol mechanics. Interest rates, liquidity cycles, and policy decisions are seen as the primary catalysts for price direction.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has echoed this outlook, predicting Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in 2026, rather than peaking and crashing in line with past cycles. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has also argued that previous bear markets were triggered by monetary tightening, not halvings themselves.

With expectations of easier financial conditions ahead, Hayes believes Bitcoin could again push to record levels as liquidity returns.

For the time being, BTC is trading at $90,226.67, racing 2.7% in the last 24 hours, gaining 1.9% across the previous seven days, and accumulating an advance of 3.4% on its monthly chart, per the most recent price information.

Meanwhile, renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes that Bitcoin has already entered the long-anticipated super cycle, as he shared a long-term BTC daily chart showing repeated death crosses accompanied by major accumulation zones and followed by multi-year rallies.

What This Means For Bitcoin Investors

If the supercycle thesis proves correct, Bitcoin’s future may look less like a roller coaster and more like a sustained climb, albeit with volatility along the way. However, critics caution that declaring the death of the four-year cycle may be premature.

For now, the debate highlights a broader shift: analysts and traders are increasingly looking at Bitcoin is through a macro lens, not just its internal supply mechanics. Whether that marks the start of a decade-long run remains one of the market’s most closely watched questions.

Bitcoin Price Today

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