Bitcoin Tests $93K While Charts Tell A Dark Story

Bitcoin (BTC) may finally be showing signs of recovery after weeks of bleeding, but new on-chain and chart data reveal something traders can’t ignore: bull runs are getting smaller, but bear markets remain just as deadly.

This contrast is now colliding with the first meaningful price bounce in weeks, as BTC taps the $91,000 – $93,000 resistance zone heading into the Thanksgiving market pause.

Now, one question is hanging over traders: Is this the start of a recovery, or just the setup for another 70% wipeout?

History Says One Thing, Price Action Says Another

As it happens, every Bitcoin cycle since 2013 shows the same pattern of bull runs shrinking in magnitude and bear markets still delivering crashes around 70% (-75%, -86%, -84%, -72%, -77%), according to a new analysis shared by popular cryptocurrency trading expert Ali Martinez on November 27.

Meanwhile, the current cycle remains undecided. But structurally, Bitcoin hasn’t broken the long-term pattern.

At the same time, fellow crypto specialist CryptoJelleNL has observed that Bitcoin is finally experiencing its first meaningful bounce in a long time, pushing directly into a brutal overhead ‘supply pocket’ between $91K and $93K.

Matters complicating this situation include Thanksgiving in the U.S., meaning traditional markets are closed. Low liquidity often translates to chop, fake-outs, and unreliable moves.

The analyst expects Bitcoin to stall or whipsaw below resistance until after the holiday.

If BTC breaks above $93K, momentum could shift sharply. If it fails, the macro historical pattern (the one pointing toward deep retracements) becomes harder to ignore.

Why This Setup Matters Now

Currently, BTC is trading at $91,679.57, up 5.15% on the day, down 0.18% across the week, and accumulating a drop of 19.8% over the past month, according to the most recent chart information.

There are several things happening at the same time. Bitcoin is rebounding exactly into the first major resistance cluster, the mapped cycle data implies the downside risk remains enormous, and the holiday illiquidity raises the chances of false breakouts.

A decisive close above $93K could flip sentiment rapidly, but a rejection could confirm the historical script of the same 70% drawdown and a new cycle.

With BTC still near the $87K – $90K zone, the market is approaching a psychological pivot point where the next big move will define the cycle, be it an upward or downward one.

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