Bitcoin Freefall Sparks Fears of an $85K Breakdown

Bitcoin (BTC) has swept through all visible downside liquidity levels, reaching below $92,000 and closing a key CME futures gap while sentiment has fallen to its lowest point since the Terra-Luna crash, coinciding with a sharp multi-session sell-off and threatening to decline to $85K.

As it happens, these movements are all visible in the latest chart data, which shows accelerating volume during the breakdown phase – a common feature of capitulation-style price action, according to the analysis shared by crypto trading expert Michaël van de Poppe in an X post on November 18.

Specifically, the chart highlights a sequence of failed retests, range breakdowns, and lower-high formations dating back several weeks. A notable point is the widening distance between the spot price and the 20-day moving average (MA), something the analyst noted has only happened a handful of times historically.

The weekly structure shows similar dislocation, indicating that the price is currently trading significantly below commonly observed equilibrium zones.

Extreme Fear Meets Oversold Technical Structure

Market sentiment has now entered ‘extreme fear’ territory with a Fear & Greed Index reading of 11, the lowest since the Luna implosion in 2022. Historically, such levels have often aligned with major local or intermediate-term bottoms, though van de Poppe cautions that he can’t rule out a further drop toward $85,000 if current support levels continue to break.

Despite the aggressive move down, the analyst expects consolidation rather than a rapid V-shaped reversal, citing previous instances where large MAs acted as magnets over a multi-week recovery window rather than an immediate snap-back. 

He also noted that, structurally, a re-test of the $95,000 – $100,000 zone would be a reasonable technical reaction if the price stabilizes and liquidity shifts back toward the bid.

Van de Poppe also suggests that current conditions represent a psychological shakeout, particularly for traders anchored to four-year halving-cycle timing models. Notably, in past cycles, outsized downside events near perceived ‘should-be bull phases’ have been catalysts for forced repositioning, sometimes before trend resumption.

For the time being, Bitcoin is trading at $91,249.83, which indicates a drop of 3.12% on the day, a 12.69% dip across the past week, and a 15.93% decline in the last month, according to the most recent price charts.

All things considered, the market direction for now hinges on whether current volume represents culmination or continuation, and the following sessions will determine whether this move forms a base or evolves into a deeper breakdown.

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