Bitcoin Cycle “Death” Narrative Debunked By On-Chain Data

The long-running narrative that Bitcoin (BTC)’s four-year cycle is finished, recently echoed by the words of Bitwise CIO that it’s being replaced by a “10-year grind,” may be getting ahead of itself.

According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the data simply doesn’t support the idea that Bitcoin has entered a new, non-cyclical era, or at least not yet.

In an X post shared on January 9, Woo pushed back against claims that Bitcoin’s traditional boom-and-bust rhythm has broken down, pointing instead to capital flow data that continues to follow historical cycle patterns.

Bitcoin’s Network Flows Still Follow The Old Script

Woo tracks long-term capital flows into the Bitcoin network using his Bitcoin Vector model. The data shows a familiar pattern of capital inflows expanding during bull cycles, peaking near cycle tops, and then declining as markets cool.

And right now, those flows are doing exactly what they’ve done in every previous cycle. As Woo noted, arguing that the structure remains intact:

“Flows into the BTC network [are] declining according to past cycles.”

In other words, Bitcoin is behaving like Bitcoin.

The “End Of Cycles” Narrative Is Premature

The idea that Bitcoin has outgrown its four-year cycle has gained popularity in recent years. The launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity have led many investors to believe Bitcoin is entering a more stable, equity-like phase.

According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, it’s now less volatile than Nvidia and “the four-year cycle is being replaced by a 10-year grind.”

But Woo says that the transition hasn’t happened yet.

“Until orange climbs higher into 2026 and starts to [do] weird non-cyclical stuff, this narrative on THE END OF 4 YEAR CYCLES is NOT supported by data.”

This means that he believes that Bitcoin may eventually evolve into a structurally different asset, but it hasn’t crossed that threshold yet.

Why Capital Flows Matter More Than Narratives

Price tells one story, while capital flows tell another. Network flow data measures how much new capital is entering or exiting Bitcoin over time. These flows tend to lead price action and often mark major inflection points in Bitcoin’s market structure. Historically, expanding flows signal accumulation and bull phases, whereas contracting flows signal distribution and cooling cycles.

Right now, Bitcoin is in the same post-peak contraction phase seen after every proper bull run. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin is bearish long-term, but simply that the market is still digesting its last expansion phase.

When Cycles Actually End

Woo isn’t ruling out the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle forever. He’s just saying it hasn’t happened yet. For Bitcoin to become non-cyclical, it would need much deeper global liquidity, broader sovereign and pension adoption, and structural integration into global financial plumbing.

That transition, if it happens, likely unfolds over the second half of this decade, not at the current stage of market maturity, as Bitcoin is still early in its monetization curve. Despite ETFs, institutional inflows, and regulatory progress, it remains a reflexive asset driven by liquidity, speculation, and macro cycles.

Until its capital base becomes truly global and permanent, its four-year rhythm remains deeply embedded. 

Bitcoin price today

Meanwhile, BTC was at press time trading at $90,505.31, up 1.13% on the day, gaining 1.92% across the week, and declining 1.59% over the past month, per the most recent price chart information.

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