Arthur Hayes: Liquidity Sets Bitcoin Up for New Highs in 2026

Bitcoin could be poised for fresh all-time highs in 2026, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. His comments come after a difficult 2025 that saw the asset lag behind other major markets. His analysis is centered on macro liquidity conditions, particularly the availability of U.S. dollar liquidity.

Hayes, a long-time crypto market analyst and derivatives strategist, says Bitcoin’s disappointing performance last year was driven by tightening U.S. dollar liquidity.

Moreover, he mentions specifically the time when the FED was reducing its balance sheet and financial conditions became more restrictive. However, he argues that those dynamics are now shifting.

Furthermore, he believes his expectations of renewed dollar liquidity expansion in 2026 will set the stage for Bitcoin to regain momentum and eventually climb to new highs.

Where the Outlook Comes From

Hayes’s macro view is essentially based on how credit and liquidity flow through financial systems. It’s important to note that when U.S. dollar liquidity is abundant, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to benefit as capital chases higher returns.

Additionally, he establishes that in 2025, tightening liquidity created conditions where Bitcoin couldn’t outperform, even as gold and some tech stocks rose.

However, he sees a structural pivot unfolding now that the Federal Reserve has ended its quantitative tightening. Therefore, a renewed expansion of the balance sheet could create the conditions needed for upward pressure on scarce assets.

For Hayes, Bitcoin’s rally will most likely begin when dollar liquidity starts to climb significantly, unlocking capital flows back into the BTC market.

The Setup for Bitcoin’s Next Surge

For Haye’s outlook to play out, there are a few key conditions that need to align first. A sustained USD liquidity expansion that makes the U.S. monetary base grow meaningfully would be the first step. Indeed, this would lower borrowing costs and encourage investment in risk assets.

Then, a continued expansion of the FED’s balance sheet, along with increased bank lending into strategic sectors, would support broader liquidity growth.

Finally, if liquidity conditions improve, capital may rotate out of assets like gold or tech stocks and back toward Bitcoin, reducing the performance gap that emerged in 2025.

If these drivers materialize, Bitcoin could enjoy renewed upside pressure.

What Could Go Wrong

If dollar liquidity fails to expand as expected, or if other assets continue to outperform Bitcoin, the crypto’s upside could remain constrained. Additionally, unpredictable macro shocks or shifts in policy could delay the timing Hayes envisions.

Nevertheless, Hayes provides a framework that connects Bitcoin’s price potential with broad economic forces, not just price charts or sentiment.

Therefore, placing the narrative of Bitcoin’s future inside a perspective that many experts consider essential when evaluating where digital assets are headed next.

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