Mike McGlone Flags Bitcoin’s Most Dangerous Price Zone

Bitcoin (BTC)’s next decisive move may already be written into the chart, at least according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone, who issued one of his starkest warnings of the year. 

In a series of posts shared on December 7, McGlone argues that two price levels now define Bitcoin’s fate heading into 2025’s final stretch: $94,000 and $84,000.

McGlone calls the range ‘Do or Die’ for a reason. Bitcoin turning positive on the year, which would require reclaiming roughly $94,000, would signal that risk appetite is returning and that broader markets may be stabilizing after months of volatility.

But a failure to hold $84,000, he says, could “have implications for all markets,” suggesting Bitcoin may once again be leading risk assets lower rather than higher.

Clear Line Between Recovery and Breakdown

McGlone notes a striking reference point: about $50,100, the average of Bitcoin’s yearly highs from 2021-2023 and its 2024 low. History shows BTC has a habit of reverting toward such long-term means, unless strong bullish momentum pulls it away. 

McGlone’s main question is “What stops the reversion?” and the answer is Bitcoin turning positive on the year. If it can’t, the strategist says, the asset that once dragged global risk markets upward may now be front-running a broader downturn.

Volatility Flashing a Warning

Additionally, the analyst has highlighted the Bitcoin/S&P 500 ratio, which has dropped to about 13x. He believes it is “more likely to revert toward 9x than revisit 19x,” especially as the Federal Reserve continues easing while BTC struggles to respond.

Even more concerning, McGlone argues volatility may now be too low, in a setup that historically precedes sharp moves in both cryptocurrencies and equities.

In his view, plunging crypto prices and a parabolic gold rally may be signaling that stock-market complacency is peaking, positioning Bitcoin as an early warning system instead of a lagger.

Bitcoin Price Prediction as Market Waits For a Signal

McGlone closes with a blunt takeaway, according to which Bitcoin above $94,000 or below $84,000 at year-end has implications “for all markets.” He adds, without hesitation: “I take the under.”

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $92,210.06, up 3.21% on the day and gaining 5.39% across the past week, as it moves to reverse the accumulated loss of 10.05% from its monthly chart, per the latest price information.

All things considered, the macro strategist who once pointed to BTC as a leading indicator for risk-asset expansion now appears to believe it may again be leading, but this time his Bitcoin price prediction is far less optimistic.

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