Bloomberg Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Face a 90% Reset – Just Like 2018

Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone is sounding the alarm on Bitcoin, arguing that the launch and explosive adoption of Bitcoin ETFs may have been the clearest sign of a cycle top. With Bitcoin’s yearly candle turning negative for 2025, he warns that the market may be transitioning into a phase that historically ends in deep resets, not shallow pullbacks.

As it happens, Bitcoin’s yearly candle has flipped negative for 2025, raising fresh concerns about whether the market has already passed its peak, and not the bigger question looms: if crypto slips further, will stocks follow suit?

ETF Euphoria May Have Signaled the Market Peak

Specifically, McGlone has highlighted a chart showing Bitcoin turning red for 2025 as of November 18, while the S&P 5000 continues to grind higher, a divergence that stands out because crypto typically leads risk assets, both in rallies and corrections, according to a new analysis he posted on X.

Furthermore, Bloomberg’s analyst suggests that Bitcoin’s ETF era may have come with unintended consequences. When access becomes easy, he argued, the market often transitions from early-adopter momentum to late-cycle saturation.

In his words:

“The broad dissemination of ETFs may have marked the peak of the crypto bull market.”

To identify a bottom, he points back to history: crypto’s 2018 bear market featured a 90% purge before stabilizing. While he isn’t predicting an identical drop, he warns that deep unwinding could be required, and this time, it could “drag down the stock market and the economy.”

The IBIT Bitcoin ETF adds another layer to the discussion. McGlone notes that IBIT is up roughly 10% since its January 2024 inception, compared with around 20% for the Nasdaq-tracking QQQ, despite IBIT trading at nearly twice the volatility. That discrepancy, he says, reflects structural weakness rather than strength.

Why a Bitcoin Breakdown Could Hit More Than Just Crypto

Notably, Bitcoin’s red candle doesn’t exist in isolation. Crypto, particularly BTC, has increasingly served as a barometer for risk appetite. Periods where Bitcoin underperforms while equities stay elevated have historically preceded volatility in broader markets.

A major concern is whether year-end sell stops, an issue that McGlone has explicitly warned about, could accelerate downside momentum. With many funds heavily exposed through ETFs, forced de-risking may trigger liquidity cascades in correlated assets.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish thesis remains intact for many investors. High volatility has historically accompanied major cycle bottoms, not just tops. The challenge is determining which phase the market is currently in.

Currently, the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset is trading at $91,286.39, recording a 0.14% decline on the day, having dropped 13.06% across the past week, and accumulating a loss of 17.56% during the previous month, according to the most recent chart information.

All this considered, the next few weeks could prove decisive. If Bitcoin stabilizes above key long-term levels, the ETF era may still show resilience. If not, the signal McGlone is watching – a bottom built through capitulation – may come into sharper focus.

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