Bitcoin Bear Market Nearing End, But $30K Still Possible

In Brief

• A historic bottom signal has reappeared.
• Liquidity concerns still cloud the outlook.
• Bear market may be near its end.

Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing a classic bottom signal again, but not everyone agrees the worst is over. A widely followed metric tracking BTC supply in profit versus loss has reached levels that previously marked major cycle lows. The signal has historically appeared near key bottoms, but analysts remain divided on what comes next.

Historic Bottom Signal Returns

Popular cryptocurrency industry analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to the supply-in-profit/loss ratio, noting it has reached levels seen during past market capitulations. Similar readings appeared in 2011, 2015, 2018, the 2020 COVID crash, and after the FTX collapse in 2022, all of which aligned with cycle bottoms.

The logic behind the signal is simple. When a large share of Bitcoin holders sit in unrealized losses, selling pressure tends to exhaust itself. That dynamic often creates conditions for a macro reversal as weak hands exit and long-term holders accumulate.

The latest reading suggests the market may be entering that phase again. If history repeats, the metric would place Bitcoin closer to the end of the bear market rather than the beginning of another leg down.

*Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin supply in profit/loss. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X*

Analysts Warn Macro Still Bearish

Not all analysts share the same confidence. On-chain researcher Willy Woo said recent selling pressure appears to be fading, which could allow Bitcoin to consolidate or stage a short rebound. However, he warned that broader liquidity conditions remain weak across both spot and futures markets.

Woo argued that Bitcoin has rarely sustained rallies when liquidity deteriorates across the board. In his base case, the market could move sideways in the near term, with a deeper cycle bottom forming later if macro conditions worsen.

He outlined a wide range of possible outcomes, including a typical bear market floor near $45,000, whereas extreme macro stress could push Bitcoin toward $30,000. A final breakdown level around $16,000 would only come into play if the broader global macro regime shifts dramatically.

*Bitcoin flow model. Source: Willy Woo/X*

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is changing hands at $65,928.14, down 1.7% on the day, declining 1.7% across the week, and accumulating a loss of 26.3% over the past month, according to the most recent price chart information.

*Bitcoin price 7-day chart. Source:* *CoinGecko*

Currently, the data presents a mixed picture. Historical signals suggest the bear market may be nearing exhaustion, but macro liquidity trends continue to cloud the outlook.