Bitcoin’s Cycle Clock Is Ticking Toward October 2026

Bitcoin (BTC)’s long-term price behavior has often felt chaotic, but historical data suggests its major market cycles follow a surprisingly consistent rhythm.

According to a recent analysis shared by popular cryptocurrency trading expert Ali Martinez in an X thread on December 24, Bitcoin’s past bull and bear markets have unfolded with near-clockwork precision, both in timing and in the depth of their corrections.

That pattern now places Bitcoin inside a critical window where previous cycles have typically produced their final market bottoms.

Repeating Rhythm Across Bitcoin’s Major Cycles

Looking back at Bitcoin’s three largest cycles reveals a striking similarity. In each case, Bitcoin took roughly 1,064 days to climb from a market bottom to a cycle peak. What followed was a correction phase lasting around 364 days before a new bottom formed.

The 2015 bottom led to the 2017 peak almost exactly 1,064 days later, followed by a 364-day decline into December 2018. The same rhythm repeated from the December 2018 bottom to the November 2021 peak, with Bitcoin bottoming again roughly one year later in November 2022.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022 and peaked near $126,200 in October 2025, once again matching that 1,064-day climb almost perfectly.

What The Current Cycle Suggests Next

For the time being, the crypto industry’s representative asset is trading at $87.041.46, down 0.51% on the day, up 0.48% across the week, and gaining 1.34% over the past month, per the most recent price chart information.

If Bitcoin continues to follow this historical rhythm, the market is now inside the 364-day correction window that has defined past bear markets. That would place a potential market bottom around October 2026.

Past drawdowns provide additional context. The 2017-2018 bear market erased roughly 84% of Bitcoin’s value, while the 2021-2022 cycle saw a 77% correction. Averaging those declines points to a potential retracement of around 80%, which would project a possible bottom near the $37,500 level.

While history never guarantees future outcomes, Bitcoin’s remarkably consistent cycle structure suggests traders may still be navigating a larger corrective phase rather than the start of a new long-term uptrend.

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